Monday, November 17, 2008

AUSTRALIAN CREDIT/FOREX

AUSTRALIAN CREDIT/FOREX (0100 GMT) SNAPSHOT:

FOREIGN EXCHANGE (against previous Sydney close) 0.6446/51 (0.6471/74)1.1703/25 (1.1697/24) 62.20/26 (62.99/05) 96.49/55 (97.34/36) 0.5110/15 (0.5148/52) 1.2613/17 (1.2567/71)

DEBT FUTURES CASH YIELDS

90-DAY BILL (DEC) 95.650(-0.050) 4.62(4.60)

3-YR BOND (DEC) 96.170(-0.040) 3.82(3.84)

10-YR BOND (DEC) 95.020(-0.005) 4.97(4.95)

3/10 SPREAD +1.150 (+1.170) AUST/US 10-YR SPREAD +131(+122)

S&P/ASX 200 3610.7 (3654.6) US10-YR 3.65(3.73)

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DATA: Merchandise imports rose 5 pct to A$21.91 billion in

October. Imports on a balance of payments basis rose by 1

percent, with oil up again as the local dollar fell sharply.

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* The Australian dollar eased further on Tuesday as dovish

comments from the country's central bank were taken as leaving

the door open for further sharp cuts in interest rates.

* Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) November

meeting showed it was increasingly worried about the impact that

a deteriorating global outlook and the destruction of household

wealth were having on business and consumer confidence.

* The economic outlook dimmed so rapidly that the board chose

to cut by 75 basis points to 5.25 percent when the initial

recommendation just a few days earlier was for a 50 basis-point

move.

* The RBA was also more confident that the economic slowdown

combined with global disinflationary forces would soon see

domestic inflation fall.

* Market still pricing in a cut of at least 75 basis points

at the RBA's December policy meeting and a further easing to

around 3.5 percent by March.

* The minutes also showed the RBA was not intending to defend

a particular level by intervening to buy the Australian dollar,

rather it was adding liquidity when markets became disorderly.

* The Aussie, which had already been under pressure from

falling share prices, dipped to around $0.6445, from $0.6480

before the minutes were released.

* It had bounced from $0.6350/60 support on Monday to reach

as high as $0.6597 before running out of steam as U.S. shares took a late dive.

* The late drop in U.S. equities added to risk aversion and

benefited the safe-haven Japanese yen. The Aussie dipped back to

62.12 yen, from a 64.11 peak on Monday.

* The same focus on safety boosted bonds at first, with

short-term futures reaching record highs, but profit-taking set

in as the day wore on.

* Three-year bond futures eased back 0.050 points to

96.165, while the 10-year contract fell a bare 0.005

points to 95.020.

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